Community correlates of change: A mixed-effects assessment of shooting dynamics during COVID-19.

This study examines changes in gun violence at the census tract level in Philadelphia, PA before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Piecewise generalized linear mixed effects models are used to test the relative impacts of social-structural and demographic factors, police activity, the presence of and proximity to drug markets, and physical incivilities on shooting changes between 2017 and June, 2021. Model results revealed that neighborhood structural characteristics like concentrated disadvantage and racial makeup, as well as proximity to drug markets and police activity were associated with higher shooting rates. Neighborhood drug market activity and police activity significantly predicted changes in shooting rates over time after the onset of COVID-19. This work demonstrates the importance of understanding whether there are unique factors that impact the susceptibility to exogenous shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic. The increasing risk of being in a neighborhood with an active drug market during the pandemic suggests efforts related to disrupting drug organizations, or otherwise curbing violence stemming from drug markets, may go a long way towards quelling citywide increases in gun violence.

The success rate of online illicit drug transactions during a global pandemic.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In the months following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA; 2020) observed an increased use of cryptomarkets, which led them to question whether cryptomarkets constituted a more convenient channel via which to distribute illicit drugs without any in-person contact. However, as more countries' borders closed, the likelihood is that cryptomarkets have been negatively impacted. We aim to measure and understand the success rate of transactions on cryptomarkets during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, through recourse to self-reported data that documents the outcome of cryptomarket transactions. METHODS: To collect self-reported data on cryptomarket transactions, we launched a platform where participants can enter information about their prior activities on cryptomarkets. The sample consists of 591 valid self-reports that were received between January 1st, 2020 and August 21st, 2020. RESULTS: The number of unsuccessful transactions increased concurrently with the global spread of the pandemic. Both the international and inter-continental nature of the transactions and the severity of the crisis in the vendor's country are significantly associated with delivery failure. CONCLUSIONS: Drug cryptomarkets may have been disrupted due to the pandemic. The results lead to two opposing explanations for unsuccessful transactions. One explanation for the lower success rate is the inability of drug dealers to deliver on past promises that were made in good faith, while the second points towards opportunistic and abusive behaviour by drug dealers.

Shifts in drug seizures in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Little is known regarding how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected patterns of drug use in the United States. Because drug seizures can serve as a proxy for drug availability, we examined shifts in drug seizures in the US during the pandemic. METHODS: We examined trends in seizures of marijuana, cocaine, methamphetamine, heroin, and fentanyl within five High Intensity Drug Trafficking Areas-Washington/Baltimore, Chicago, Ohio, New Mexico, and North Florida. Trends were examined for number and total weight of seizures from March 2019 through September 2020 using Joinpoint regression. RESULTS: Significant decreases in seizures involving marijuana (ß = -0.03, P = 0.005) and methamphetamine (ß = -0.02, P = 0.026) were detected through April 2020, and then seizures of marijuana (ß = 0.10, P = 0.028) and methamphetamine (ß = 0.11, P = 0.010) significantly increased through September 2020. The number of seizures involving marijuana and methamphetamine peaked in August 2020, exceeding the highest pre-COVID-19 number of seizures. Fentanyl seizures increased overall (ß = 0.05, P < .001), but did not significantly drop during the start of COVID-19, and significant changes were not detected for cocaine or heroin. We also detected a significant increase in weight of marijuana seized from April through September 2020 (ß = 0.40, P = .001). The weight of marijuana seized in August 2020 exceeded the highest pre-COVID-19 weight. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with an immediate decrease in marijuana and methamphetamine seizures, and then increases throughout 2020 with some months exceeding the number (and weights) of seizures from the previous year. More research is warranted to determine the extent to which these seizures reflect changes in drug use.

Preliminary findings of the impact of COVID-19 on drugs crypto markets.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has had unprecedented consequences on the world economy. The impact of the pandemic on illicit drug market remains scant. We expose the potential consequences the COVID-19 pandemic could have on the ability of people who use drugs to source their illicit drugs via cryptomarkets. METHODS: We analyzed 262 self-reported submissions of illicit drug transactions on the darkweb. The self-reports include the date of the transaction, the types of illicit drugs bought/sold, and whether the shipment of the illicit drugs succeeded, had issues (ex. unusually long delivery, an error in the type of drug shipped, quantity or concentration of the drug), or failed. RESULTS: Between January 1st, 2020 and March 21, 2020, successful deliveries represented 60% to 100% of transactions. Starting on March 21 however, the share of shipments that had issues or failed increased rapidly and represented a majority of all shipments. At the peak of the market disruption, the successful deliveries represented only 21% of all transactions. CONCLUSION: Illicit drug transactions on the darkweb were disrupted at the same time as lockdowns were put in place in the United States and in the United Kingdom. While no causation link can be established, the correlation suggests that lockdowns could have disrupted drug cryptomarkets activities. We discuss the market disruption in light of the literature.

Will the Current COVID-19 Pandemic Impact on Long-term Cannabis Buying Practices?

: The COVID-19 pandemic and the response to have resulted in an increase in sales activity levels on darknet markets during the first 3 months of 2020, mainly related to cannabis products. One key question is whether more people will become used to this form of purchasing their drugs and will they continue with it post COVID-19 lockdown. As one-to-one encrypted communication services or social media apps are increasingly being used, monitoring and interdiction will become much more challenging.